Description

This analysis provides a forecast of BTC prices using a Seasonal ARIMA model with Box-Cox transformation. The forecast includes different scenarios:

The confidence levels used are 68%, 95%, and 99.7%, which means there is a corresponding probability that the actual price will fall within the Bear and Bull case range for each confidence level.

The purpose of this model is to help investors understand potential future price movements and make informed decisions based on different market scenarios.

Bear_0.997 Bear_0.95 Bear_0.68 Base Bull_0.68 Bull_0.95 Bull_0.997
2025-12-14 22.211092 24.139499 26.218114 28.635400 31.382163 34.421564 38.060379
2025-12-21 19.646548 22.391254 25.561676 29.538032 34.454585 40.420134 48.342838
2025-12-28 17.296601 20.408233 24.192199 29.223495 35.882944 44.618276 57.347919
2026-01-04 15.677451 19.017966 23.253571 29.167742 37.472227 49.160326 67.764905
2026-01-11 14.557230 18.080267 22.710880 29.462273 39.466836 54.518018 80.672283
2026-01-18 13.487255 17.069336 21.916108 29.239130 40.597212 58.712172 92.829759
2026-01-25 12.615523 16.227930 21.241073 29.059560 41.700524 62.997827 106.405580
2026-02-01 11.916035 15.554293 20.720704 29.017702 42.968643 67.758621 122.499478
2026-02-08 11.278462 14.910537 20.172951 28.846968 43.959506 72.179748 139.545012
2026-02-15 10.708405 14.317959 19.642749 28.629360 44.809359 76.478648 158.132550
2026-02-22 10.200467 13.779013 19.145216 28.400903 45.586098 80.777136 178.784005
2026-03-01 9.779995 13.341609 18.767671 28.328012 46.630605 85.875391 204.513032
2026-03-08 9.354480 12.879601 18.331013 28.133439 47.465595 90.860362 233.728913
2026-03-15 9.192115 12.814175 18.529951 29.098289 50.824057 102.910940 298.197783
2026-03-22 8.809922 12.378897 18.084370 28.826219 51.522597 108.429588 342.792553
2026-03-29 8.500993 12.042212 17.779517 28.786863 52.728715 115.745918 404.703154
2026-04-05 8.273017 11.822220 17.656294 29.082588 54.750469 126.166831 499.405090
2026-04-12 7.979525 11.478666 17.294197 28.866334 55.524979 133.073134 586.338630
2026-04-19 7.713929 11.167459 16.968488 28.691202 56.375205 140.602140 695.676448
2026-04-26 7.486912 10.909094 16.720067 28.650607 57.563414 149.846336 847.433964
2026-05-03 7.256795 10.634337 16.424854 28.483148 58.397886 158.219138 1023.453372
2026-05-10 7.035022 10.363626 16.121045 28.269515 59.079400 166.383502 1238.175359
2026-05-17 6.825456 10.104683 15.824319 28.045161 59.701758 174.690049 1509.675329